The IPCC report, hmmm. Ok, Witchdoctor is not an exppert, But he is good to, since he learned long ago Paul Feyerabend against the method approach,to get to it and check, analyze first, spot on, the parameters of the Method. So, as the press gave the summary of the IPCC report on climate crash wave he started smelling, something not right.First, the media sold the most optimistic reading of the report. Second the summary given by the media and the sycophants of Oligarchy was almost false.
The report clearly states that many regions have not only achieved the1.5 C warming, they already doubled it. Not the 1.1 average bollocks they are peddling, the fake. See pages around 59 and on.
WD was interested on the boundary conditions, which is the bottom and top line of the amplitude within. What exactly are this boundaries where the amplitude wave rolls?
The lower boundary is the mean temp of a certain period and as WD understands, the upper boundary, much more important, is the overall green house gasses or mainly the CO2 increase. Page 65 and on shows that the whole prediction linearly leans on the level of greenhouse gasses.
Planet Earth dynamics is not so simple. Witchdoctor is not denying at all this greenhouse correlation, on the contrary, he thinks this has much deeper stochastic effects we can imagine.
Now, such graph is basically Linear. Two lines and the amplitude peaking and falling in between.
This is definitely the first thing which is , hmm,not right. Linear and the amplitude adjusting to the boundary, the upper one which becomes the leading parameter-boundary of the amplitude wave. So, the whole thing is calculated on the expansion of greenhouse gas CO2 and the amplitude is adjusted to the CO2 growth, the upper boundary moves upwards. Now, even if this “gas constant” rises, as it does, and even if the correlated temp rises as an effect, this is definitely still linear.
Lets explain it from WD point.
The Nature on the Planet is the anti entropy event. It changes the straight physical 2nd law of thermodynamics outcome into a complicated , very much so, antientropic proliferation of life with different 2nd law uses. The 2nd law serves for the co-dependent growth of a new order- the living things, which use the 2nd law to change its entropy into a force of life. Planet uses the entropy to make the new order- the life- this is a new thing and not a Boltzmann box and has nothing to do with it , only as a guideline for an understanding but, since life is multistacked, the 2nd law is used by different layers of life forms to produce new order- life- which in turn has the anti entropy effect on a Boltzmann box. Roughly, a part of 2nd law outcome is used by another life form to annihilate the 2nd law overall effect and turn it into a new order – a new form of life which organizes the lost energy of a former life participant again into anti entropy order until the next form of life uses the entropy to reorganize the 2nd law again, and so forth and… even back!
The Feedback Loop. They feed on each other and reorganize the energy and so Planet earth becomes what it is, anew form of a living universe with a water, oxygen cycle, temp mitigation rain patterns, etc, etc, and so forth,
The IPCC report has no feedback loop of real magnitude.In fact the feedback loop is completely missing and is only calculated as the CO2 rise but that is a loss of feedback dynamics anyway.
The feedback of the warming is certainly a stochastic math and WD is unable to calculate it.
But, if we observe , as in Europe, the current heat waves coming from Sahara, what feedback loop can we calculate out of the current burned forests which are turning into desert and having a multiplying effect on the whole climate and wind patterns?
But it is essential for a forecasting of future. Definitely the result is not at all optimistic slow gradual growth of 1,5 C temp and the linear 2nd law melting . If one thinks Melting – the constant rise of temperature
Of a Pole is not a Boltzmann math, it is dynamic and non linear, meaning the melting is not linear but it proceeds in jumps or sudden steps hard to predict exactly. It just suddenly melts when the under ice lakes break the barriers.The consequences are unimaginable, from the disruption of the currents to the whole circulation of cold and heat to , whatever …
Linear 2nd law is a cup of tea slowly getting the same temp as its environment.
The Earth is not a cup of tea.
The weather and climate Earth proceedings are of a quantum nature.
If one thinks of an example , like a sudden storm cell forming out of the blue sky just above you and in a few minutes you are int the gusts of wind and in a hale storm of the size of apples, it gives the complexity idea of what we are talking about. To predict a sudden quantum pattern and the consequent jump in energy levels,coming out of the blue, ha, …
Or a classic example of a sea fog reaching the shore. If there is desert behind the shore, the rain formation is poor and random, but if behind the sea shore there is a forest, the effect of a forest is a conveyor of forming clouds carrying/forming rain and so inland we have rain and without the role of a shore forest, we have none or a little….
From this example we see the essential role of life- plants on the Earth climate. Earth climate is plant made system and the human parasite just found a niche to expand in it. AS WD wrote before, it is only a question of sizing an opportunity given by the earth ecosystem for the human parasite.
The amplitude understood as the “extremization “- the widening gap of phenomena is completely misleading, The media and its peddlers sell the fake notion that events are getting into extremes, the amplitude widens so extreme weather is a new normal. It is more hot, it rains more and it gets dry more…
WD argues that this, if one takes the 2nd law a as real, is a transient time window of extremes before the phenomena end in total entropy or , when level energy field steps in…
If the result of the gulf stream stop is a constant winter in the North Europe, then there will be no more extremes, the stabilizing- leveling of the energy involved is the cause of this and not the opposite. That should be in WD opinion the outcome of the 2nd law.The consequences on other parts of the planet are very deep if this is so…
OK, believe it or not, but Witchdoctor thinks that the IPCC report is too optimistic because of the arguments above ( and maybe more when WD will think about them), the method lacks inner feedback loop and dynamics of the climate evolution given by the Earth “nature”, which is system evolved from life of the plants mostly…and so, cheers.
The overshoot notion in the report is a proof that the model is too linear. There is no overshoot of any kind in a dynamic model.
ASSUMPTION BEHIND THE IPCC MODEL; A SORT OF PLANCK CONSTANT?
Ok, Witchdoctor tried a little to find the assumption from which the method and IPCC model is made. No success , so this is his opinion because the semantic logic of the report necessary leads to it.Reading the report, it is clear that the 1,5 C warming works as a Planck Constant. Read about Planck Constant , here or there…. Essentially the IPCC states that 1,5 C is the “Planck Constant” REBOUND VALUE. The excited climate has a 1.5 range jump at which it can rebound back and forth and the system is still viable.At 1,5 C the Planet can go back as the excitement constant has this jump range. See Planck Law, too. The 1.5 C temp is correlated to percentage of CO2 and the model is made. Did they try it in some box simulating earth climate to get the constant? Do not know….
So Planet Earth can stand at max the 1.5C limit range of excitement to behave as it behaves says the IPCC. Over that…. “the heavy metal fusion”, hehe, nice play between radiation, electromagnetic and a excited escape of the constant with the breaking of the nucleus.Sound a heavy. Planet Earth as an atom/body with the Planck constant.Heat is the electromagnetic phenomena, so, we get the Planck Constant of the body /Earth with the boundary upper correlation of the CO2. Some sort of e=hv.
Over it, the body gets unstable, and, booom.
ONLY In this assumption the overshoot notion gets logical. The overshoot is the loss of 1,5 C constant which is the max level of reversing the oscillation can stand..
Conclusion
This is the probable explanation, yes “sigma high”, until somebody points exactly where WD got it wrong,of the IPCC linear atomist approach to the Planet ecosystem, which, do not forget, is Plant and Fauna made.It is not an atom.
There is no minimum proof that 1,5c warming especially as a mean value , which means nothing for a dynamic system, can be a constant of rebound. We are way out of this. It is much worse.The overshoot notion is not a scientific value in this case, anyway. It is some ethical choice and it does not hold water.
Anyway, if we do not want to burn alive, better a Constant than Trump.
But, with the feedback loop, breaking chains of multistacked life forms which remodel the 2nd law or even reorder the entropy back to zero by creating new orders of energy use and the excess energy is reused by someone else or a thermal disequilibrium is a way to new order for someone else (we are talking Plants life and their Planet system creation here), etc, blah blah, …, we,
We are in dire straits and the constant of 1,5 C is WORTHLESS. IPCC is almost asleep at the wheel.
Witchdoctor
PS addendum on 15.8.2021- the clarification of planet entropy:
the plants, which made the oxygen you squander, live on each other entropy, reorganizing it in each other energy. they feed on entropy of someone else.the cycle of order and disorder as the way of life and thriving.If not, how you call the humus, the seemingly completely entropic substance which thrives and gives life to many species… same for ocean plankton and all…